CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-08-21T10:24:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2015 Aug 22 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50822
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Aug 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Aug 2015 until 24 Aug 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2015  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2015  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Aug 2015  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar activity remained enhanced over the past 24 hours, with
Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing continued
flux emergence, and producing several C-class flares and two M-class
flares; an M1.1 class flare on 2015-Aug-21 peaking at 20:34 UT, and an M1.2
flare on 2015-Aug-22 peaking at 06:49 UT. An earlier M1.4 class flare
produced by AR 2403, peaking at 09:48 UT, had an associated Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME). Although there was evidence of a dimming on the Sun, the
extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available.
At the time the AR was located at S17E26, and the CME was largely directed
to the south east, and is not expected to significantly interact with the
Earth, the CME had a speed of 297 km/s, and if a small component was to
reach the Earth it would be expected to arrive on 2015-Aug-26 at 07:00 UT.
AR 2404 (Macintosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has shown some
evidence of growth, but still remains small. No other evident Earth
directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is
expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing
C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares.
The solar wind speed, as recorded by the ACE satellite, has been slowly
decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 460 km/s to 400 km/s. The
total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the ACE
satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely
fluctuating between -5 nT and +5 nT yesterday (2015-Aug-21) but has been
largely negative over the past 10 hours, around -4 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions varied between quiet and moderate over the past 24 hours, with
the local (Dourbes) K-index reaching 3 and the NOAA K-index reaching 2.
There is currently a small coronal hole located at S15W45 which may
increase solar wind speeds. The low solar wind speed, combined with the low
magnitude Southward Bz indicates that geomagnetic activity should be small
with possible low level enhancements over the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 069, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Aug 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 013
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 077, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
21  0934  0948 1007 S17E26 M1.4 2B  73   ///2403      II/1 
21  1910  2034 2050 S12E26 M1.1 1N       ///2403      III/1 
22  0639  0649 0659 S15E20 M1.2 1B  62   ///2403      II/2 
END

BT

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